Every trader learns one rule early: what goes up must come down. Markets move in cycles, no rally lasts forever, and when you see something as stretched as gold has been over the past months, the instinct is to expect a pullback.
I believe in that rule too. But I also believe in stepping outside the chart. Because sometimes, the inside view — the candles, the ranges, the oscillators — blinds us to the forces that are actually driving the market. And when you zoom out to the bigger picture, gold looks less like a bubble ready to burst and more like a mirror reflecting how unstable the world has become.
The Desk View: A Market That Looks Overstretched
From the seat of a trader, gold looks heavy.
Liquidity is thick, with tier-1 banks and market makers keeping spreads tight and order books active. Volatility has stretched, ranges are wider, and you can feel desks managing exposure carefully. Every pullback gets absorbed, but the higher it runs, the thinner conviction becomes.
The textbook logic says a correction is coming. “Buy the dips” only works for so long before traders expect mean reversion. That’s the inside view: risk is extended, positioning crowded, upside capped.
And yet, if you only watch the chart, you risk missing the real story.
The Outside View: A World That Refuses to Settle
Step away from the technicals and look at the state of the world. The backdrop for gold is unlike any cycle we’ve seen in decades.
- War in Europe: The Russia–Ukraine war began in February 2022. It’s now dragged on for over three years, with no clean resolution in sight. What began as a regional conflict has hardened into a semi-permanent fracture in global stability, reshaping energy flows, alliances, and capital markets.
- Crypto’s Surge: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are trading near all-time highs again. For many, this represents a competing “anti-system” asset. But in reality, crypto’s rise often complements gold’s strength — both are barometers of distrust in fiat stability and global institutions.
- The BRICS Agenda: Talk of de-dollarisation has been around since at least 2014, when BRICS nations began exploring alternatives to the USD in trade settlement. But since 2022, those discussions have accelerated, with real steps taken toward resource-backed settlement systems. This is not theory anymore — it’s policy, and gold sits at the centre of it.
- Central Bank Demand: Russia, China, and India have been quietly — and not so quietly — accumulating gold reserves for years. In 2022 and 2023, global central bank demand for gold hit record highs, with more than 1,000 tonnes added annually. The structural bid under gold isn’t retail speculation; it’s sovereign strategy.
This outside lens reveals a market not driven purely by charts but by a world order that feels less certain by the day.
What We’re Taught vs. What We’re Seeing
We’re taught that in a shaky world, money flows into gold. And the world has rarely looked shakier than it does today.
Wars don’t end cleanly. Supply chains remain fractured. Alliances are shifting. Trust in institutions — from central banks to governments — is eroding. And when trust erodes, capital seeks safety. For centuries, that safety has been spelled gold.
So while the inside view says “overextended,” the outside view says “necessary.” Gold isn’t just trading as a speculative instrument. It’s functioning as a hedge against instability itself.
The Forward-Pushing Layer: Technology and Transformation
There’s another angle often overlooked when talking about gold: emerging technologies.
AI, automation, and decentralised networks are transforming industries at a pace we’ve never seen. These are forward-pushing forces, accelerating disruption across finance, healthcare, logistics, and beyond.
But here’s the paradox: the faster the future arrives, the greater the need for anchors. As the world shifts to AI-driven economies and decentralised systems, uncertainty rises. Investors may chase new opportunities, but they also hedge harder. And historically, every technological revolution has been paired with a return to the stability of hard assets.
Gold sits in that duality. It doesn’t fight innovation. It balances it.
Liquidity and Participation: Why Gold Feels “Different”
One more reason why this rally isn’t like others: participation.
Gold is not a niche asset. It’s one of the most liquid instruments in global markets. It trades across futures, ETFs, OTC flows, and is cleared by tier-1 banks and market makers every single day. When liquidity is this deep and participants this broad — from central banks to hedge funds to retail investors — the rally carries structural weight.
This isn’t a low-float equity where momentum can evaporate overnight. It’s a cornerstone market that reflects the state of global trust.
So How Long Can Gold Run?
That’s the question every trader asks. How long until it cools off? How much higher before mean reversion?
The honest answer: no one knows. Cycles do exist. Pullbacks are inevitable. Traders will trim exposure, VAR models will force books lighter, and liquidity providers will adjust spreads. Short-term corrections will happen — they always do.
But from the outside view, this isn’t just another cycle. It’s a repricing of gold’s role in the global system. Wars, reserve accumulation, de-dollarisation, technological disruption — these aren’t day-to-day drivers. They’re structural.
And structural forces don’t resolve in weeks. They play out over years.
Final Take
Yes, gold has ripped. Yes, the market feels crowded. Yes, traders will say what goes up must come down.
But step back. Look outside the screen. The world is fractured, currencies are contested, central banks are hedging, and technology is rewriting the future faster than institutions can adapt.
In that kind of environment, gold doesn’t just hold value — it gains it.
The chart might flash overbought. The inside view might scream correction. But the outside perspective says gold’s story isn’t finished. And if history is any guide, the shakier the world gets, the stronger that story becomes.
